What Are My Odds?
Posted on 18. Mar, 2009 by David Kreiner, MD in Age Related Infertility, Assisted Reproductive Technologies, Co-culture of Embryos, Embryo Glue, Infertility Information
One of the first questions that most people ask is “what is the chance for success?” In 2002 about 28% of cycles in the United States in which women underwent IVF and embryo transfer with their own eggs resulted in the live birth of at least one infant. This rate has been improving slowly but steadily over the years. Patients should be aware, however, that some clinics define “success” as any positive pregnancy test or any pregnancy, even if miscarried or ectopic. These “successes” are irrelevant to patients desiring a baby. To put these figures into perspective, studies have shown that the rate of pregnancy in couples with proven fertility in the past is only about 20% per cycle. Therefore, although a figure of 28% may sound low, it is greater than the chance that a fertile couple will conceive in any given cycle.
Success varies with many factors. The age of the woman is the most important factor, when women are using their own eggs. Success rates decline as women age, and success rates drop off even more dramatically after about age 37. Part of this decline is due to a lower chance of getting pregnant from ART, and part is due to a higher risk of miscarriage with increasing age, especially over age 40. There is, however, no evidence that the risk of birth defects or chromosome abnormalities (such as Down’s syndrome) is any different with ART than with natural conception.
Success rates vary with the number of embryos transferred. However, transferring more embryos at one time not only increases the chance of success with that transfer, but will also increase the risk of a multiple pregnancy, which are much more complicated than a singleton pregnancy. The impact of the number of embryos that are transferred on success rates also varies with the age of the woman.
Pregnancy complications, such as premature birth and low birth weight, tend to be higher with ART pregnancies, primarily because of the much higher rate of multiple pregnancies. Nationally, in 2002-2003 about 30% of ART deliveries were twin deliveries, versus 1-2% of spontaneous pregnancies. The risk of pregnancy containing triplets or more was 6% in 2003.
As women get older, the likelihood of a successful response to ovarian stimulation and progression to egg retrieval decreases. These cycles in older women that have progressed to egg retrieval are also slightly less likely to reach transfer. The percentage of cycles that progress from transfer to pregnancy significantly decreases as women get older. As women get older, cycles that have progressed to pregnancy are less likely to result in a live birth because the risk for miscarriage is greater. This age related decrease in success accelerates after age 35 and even more so after age 40. Overall, 37% of cycles started in 2003 among women younger than 35 resulted in live births. This percentage decreased to 30% among women 35–37 years of age, 20% among women 38–40, 11% among women 41–42, and 4% among women older than 42. The proportion of cycles that resulted in singleton live births is even lower for each age group.
The success rates vary in different programs in part because of quality, skill and experience but also based on the above factors of age, number of embryos transferred and patient population. Patients may also differ by diagnosis and intrinsic fertility which may relate to the number of eggs a patient may be able to stimulate reflected by baseline FSH and antral follicle count as well as the genetics of their gametes. These differences make it impossible to compare programs.
Another factor often overlooked when considering one’s odds of conceiving and having a healthy baby from an IVF procedure is the success with cryopreserved embryos.
Thus, a program which may have a lower success rate with a fresh transfer but much higher success with a frozen embryo transfer will result in a better chance of conceiving with only a single IVF stimulation and retrieval. Success with frozen embryos transferred in a subsequent cycle also allows the program to transfer fewer embryos in the fresh cycle minimizing the risk of a riskier multiple pregnancy. It may be more revealing to examine a program’s success with a combination of the fresh embryo transfer and frozen embryo transfers resulting from a single IVF stimulation and transfer. For example, at East Coast Fertility, the combined number of fresh and frozen embryo transfers that resulted in pregnancies from January 1, 2005 to April 2006 was. The number of retrieval during that time was. The success rate combining the fresh and frozen pregnancies divided by the number of retrievals was 77.2%. The high frozen embryo transfer pregnancy rate allowed us to transfer fewer embryos so that there were 0 triplets from fresh transfers during this time.
What can I do to increase my odds?
Patients often ask if there are any additional procedures we can do in the lab that may improve the odds of conception. Assisted hatching is the oldest and most commonly added procedure aimed at improving an embryo’s ability to implant. Embryos must break out or hatch from their shell that has enclosed them since fertilization prior to implanting into the uterine lining. This can be performed mechanically, chemically and most recently by utilizing a laser microscopically aimed at the zona pellucidum, the shell surrounding the embryo. Assisted hatching appears to benefit patients who are older than 38 years of age and those with thick zonae.
Recently a protein additive called “Embryo glue” was shown to improve implantation rates in some patients whose embryos were transferred in media containing “Embryo glue”. Time will tell if the adhesive effect of this supplement is truly increasing success rates and warrants wide scale use in IVF programs.
Embryo co culture is the growth of developing embryos is the same Petri dish as another cell line. Programs utilize either the woman’s endometrial cells obtained from a previous endometrial biopsy or granulosa cells obtained at the time of the egg retrieval from the same follicles aspirated as the eggs. Growth factors produced by these endometrial and granulosa cell lines diffuse to the developing embryo and are thought to aid in the growth and development of the embryo. It appears to help patients who have had previous IVF failures and poor embryo development.
Dawn
Mar 28th, 2009
Do you know the percentages of frozen embryos that do not survive through the “thawing out” phase. I have one frozen embryo that I want to use and it will neeed to be transferred from one state to another. Are my odds good of having a successful thawing out/transfer/pregnancy.
I did successfully have two fresh embryos transferred in 2007 which resulted in beautiful fraternal twins, now 16 months old!
Dr. David Kreiner
Mar 28th, 2009
For specifics on the success at East Coast Fertility please check success rates page on eastcoastfertility.com.
David Kreiner
Mar 31st, 2009
It varies depending on program, patient and embryo but thaw success rate averages about 70%. Pregnancy likewise will vary based on same considerations. A high quality embryo if it thaws successfully should offer about a 35% pregnancy rate in a 35 year old woman.
Ann
Apr 2nd, 2009
I am a 35 year old female and is considering to have PGD done. Is there a safe # of embryos we should have so that we do not risk losing any to transfer?
David Kreiner
Apr 4th, 2009
Unfortunately, there is no number of embryos that will guarantee that you can have a transfer. For those patients who are selecting a particular gender this is even more the case since we are limiting our choice even further. PGD is limited due to the possibility of mosaicism which is the presence of more than one cell line in an embryo. If an abnormal cell is biopsied than a diagnosis of an abnormal embryo is made. However, experience has taught us that occasionally, these abnormal cells are shed and the embryo can become normal. The fear is that discarding these abnormal embryos may result in discarding embryos that truly have pregnancy potential. Some suggest discarding trisomy 21 and other abnormalities that may not miscarry spontaneously. All other abnormalities if they remain abnormal may not implant or would definitely miscarry, usually early. For this reason, it was reasoned that given the possibility that these embryos may in time become normal that they be considered for embryo transfer.
All these factors are to be considered when deciding if you have enough embryos to have PGD performed. The quality of the embryos and your history and of course age are all important as well. Consult with your physician so he/she may individualize his/her recommendation for you.
On the horizon another procedure CGH holds more promise but is not currently available except in limited locations and under experimental conditions.
Andrea
Jun 10th, 2009
When going through in vitro, if an embryo starts dividing too rapidly they sometimes won’t use it for transfer because it usually doesn’t have a good chance of developing into a baby. But if it starts to slow down to a normal rate of division by day 3, and then it is frozen, does it have a greater or lesser chance of becoming a baby if it survives the thawing out process?
I know there is no exact answer, but your opinion means a lot to me. Also, could that also be an indicator that the embryo would split into identical twins, in your opinion?
David Kreiner
Jun 12th, 2009
I am sorry but I do not know the answer to this, nor do I know if the answer is known. I wonder if any of the embryologists have any experience or have heard of situations that could be helpful.
Dani
Jan 15th, 2010
My story is long, but I’ll make it as brief as I can.
I am 22 years old and I don’t ovulate on my own. I have PCOS and insulin resistance. I take 1000mg of Metformin daily.
In Spring of 2009 I did 3 rounds of clomid 50mg, 100mg, 200mg. The clomid didn’t produce any follicles greater than 12mm and I didn’t ovulate with the clomid. Then, I randomly conceived in July of 2009, but miscarried at the end of August (at 6w5d and after hearing a healthy heartbeat.)
Right now I’m doing 3 rounds of birth control in the hopes of regulating my hormone levels, and then my doctor is going to give me a round of femara directly after the 3rd cycle of BC withdrawal bleed. What are the chances of this procedure working after having no success whatsoever with the clomid?
Another question I have (as you can imagine) are my odds of miscarrying a second time. My doctor suspects (he did no testing, though) that perhaps I had a corpus luteum defect and that this led to the miscarriage. How can this be prevented in the future?
Also, I saw your video on MiniIVF over at Fertilityties.com. I’ve never heard much about it, but now I am considering it as a future option. What are my odds of conceiving through MiniIVF given my circumstances, medical situation, and age?
Thanks!
Dani
David Kreiner
Jan 15th, 2010
I do think that MicroIVF is a great option for you. Did you ever have a glucose tolerance test? Have you tried a higher dose of metformin? There is a slightly higher risk of miscarriage with PCOS probably related to the corpus luteum and you could benefit from taking progesterone vaginally or intramuscularly to improve implantation.
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